A Bayesian approach to a dynamic inventory model under an unknown demand distribution

In this paper, the Bayesian approach to demand estimation is outlined for the cases of stationary as well as non-stationary demand. The optimal policy is derived for an inventory model that allows stock disposal, and is shown to be the solution of a dynamic programming backward recursion. Then, a method is given to search for the optimal order level around the myopic order level. Finally, a numerical study is performed to make a pro"t comparison between the Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches, when the demand follows a stationary lognormal distribution. A pro"t comparison is also made between the stationary and nonstationary Bayesian approaches to observe whether the Bayesian approach incorporates non-stationarity in the demand. And, it is observed whether stock disposal reduces the losses due to ignoring non-stationarity in the demand.